Fate is the macro trend; luck is the micro execution.

In my post Into NDE , I mentioned metaphysical explanations. Honestly, when I felt lost about my own future, I started looking into this “mysterious Eastern power”—commonly known as fortune-telling.

I’ll keep this brief because the subject is deep, and since I’ve mostly just calculated my own chart, I’m not exactly an expert.

What is Fortune-Telling?

Think of fortune-telling as a generative AI model. The input is a person’s “BaZi” (Eight Characters), the output consists of symbols, and the process involves parsing these symbols. What happens in the middle? It’s a bit like nodes in a Large Language Model (LLM)—the exact internal logic is hard to pin down.

Four Pillars (BaZi)

This is the foundation. It represents your birth date using Heavenly Stems and Earthly Branches. It consists of four parts: the Year Pillar, Month Pillar, Day Pillar, and Hour Pillar. Generally, these represent your family of origin, the macro environment, yourself, and your later years. The “Day Master” (the stem of the Day Pillar) is the core.

For someone born on January 1, 2000, at 01:01 AM, the data looks roughly like this:

Source: https://www.buyiju.com/bazi/

The Male Chart (乾造) line is the traditional BaZi. In this example, the Year Pillar is Ji-Mao, the Month is Bing-Zi, the Day Master is Wu-Wu, and the Hour is Gui-Chou.

How to Calculate

Once you have these, you can derive predictions based on the generating and overcoming cycles of the Five Elements. The specific methods are complex, but generally, Earth rules thoughts, Water rules wisdom, etc.

Then there are special interactions like the “Three-Harmony Water Frame” (Shen-Zi-Chen), the “Three-Punishments” (Yin-Si-Shen), or the “Four Earthly Branches” (Yin-Shen-Si-Hai).

Luck Cycles (Da Yun & Liu Nian)

The Four Pillars show your general baseline. “Da Yun” (Great Luck) looks at 10-year trends, while “Liu Nian” (Flowing Years) looks at the luck for a specific year.

Great Luck (Da Yun)

First, you calculate when the luck cycle starts:

• Reference Point: Starts from the Month Pillar.
• Direction: (Based on the 60-year cycle, Yin/Yang depends on the Year Stem)
  • Yang Male / Yin Female: Forward.
  • Yin Male / Yang Female: Backward.
• Starting Age:
  • Calculate the time difference between birth and the previous/next solar term.
  • Days are multiplied by 4 months.
  • Hours are multiplied by 5 days.
  • Total time determines when the first cycle begins.

Once calculated, you compare the Five Elements of the cycle to the original birth chart to see how those ten years will play out.

Flowing Years (Liu Nian)

This is the annual fortune. You take the Heavenly Stem and Earthly Branch of the current year and check their interactions with your BaZi. For example, 2026 (Bing-Wu) is a year of strong Fire. For someone who “likes Fire” (e.g., their chart is too “cold”), it’s like rain after a drought. For someone who “likes Water” or “likes Metal,” it might feel like a trial by fire.

Accuracy

According to this video , the accuracy is roughly 60% to 66%. (The video also mentions Zi Wei Dou Shu, a more granular system, but I’m sticking to BaZi for now).

I view this as a margin for free will. Destiny is determined by a combination of numerology and free will. They influence each other, causing probability to collapse into specific outcomes.

The Role of Metaphysics

I see this more as a psychological adjustment tool rather than fatalism. It’s a utility.

If the charts say I have a “wealth loss” trend today, I might proactively buy a nice meal to “fulfill” that loss on my own terms—it’s better than getting pickpocketed. If a year is supported by “Resource Stars” (representing education), I might choose to push for a better school to manifest that energy.

The old saying “the more you calculate, the thinner your luck becomes” probably reflects the limitations of ancient people who couldn’t find a way to solve the “bugs” in their chart. As long as you’re willing to think, unless it’s a total dead end, there’s usually a sliver of opportunity. It’s not that “luck gets thinner,” it’s that people’s minds get boxed in.

Final Thoughts

I want to mention two works that resonated with me. One is Firefly’s plot in Honkai: Star Rail. There’s a line: “It is not fate that shapes us, but we who shape fate.” It suggests that free will plays a massive role. Or perhaps, being exposed to metaphysics is also part of “fate,” prompting you to move in a certain direction to achieve a “destined” result. But subjectively, it’s still free will choosing to experience the world. It reminds me of the line when switching perspectives: “When you have the chance to make a choice, make one that you know you won’t regret.”

The other is Chen Xinci’s plot in the game Student Days. The personality switch segment is incredibly powerful—using free will to overwrite “destiny.” It aligns with my belief that “everything is modifiable.”

So, my point is: don’t worry about destiny. Even if it exists, it’s incomprehensible to free will. Just live your life well.